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6. Sector & macro tailwinds

Sources: Agent 10 (Competitive Macro), V-Marc FY25 PPT slides 12-13 (Industry Background + Growth and Demand Drivers), MOFSL Cables & Wires Report April 2024, MNRE, NEP

Sector classification

Broad sector: Industrials
Sector: Capital Goods
Broad industry: Industrial Products
Industry: Cables - Electricals
Buyer segments: B2G (utilities, defence) + B2B (EPC/OEM) + B2C (retail dealer network)

Industry sizing & growth trajectory

Metric	Value	Source
Indian cables & wires market FY23	₹700 bn (~₹70,000 Cr)	MOFSL
Indian cables & wires market FY27E	₹1.2 – 1.3 trillion (₹1,20,000 – ₹1,30,000 Cr)	MOFSL
CAGR FY23-27	12-14%	MOFSL
Cables & wires segment as % of Indian electrical industry	~39%	MOFSL
Organised players' share FY14	61%	MOFSL
Organised players' share FY23	74%	MOFSL
Organised players' share FY27E	80%	MOFSL
Central government capex CAGR FY20-24	30%	MOFSL
Central government capex FY25BE	₹11.1 trillion	MOFSL

Five concurrent demand drivers

Government capex boom — Central capex 30% CAGR FY20-24, projected ₹11.1 trillion FY25BE. Direct cables demand: utility transmission/distribution upgrades (RDSS scheme ₹3.03 lakh Cr) + railways electrification + defence (HAL, Ordnance Factories on V-Marc client list) + airports + irrigation pumps (Jal Jeevan Mission)
Real-estate expansion — Urban population 37% by 2025; nuclear-family proliferation; rising per-capita housing area. Drives building wires segment (V-Marc's +273% YoY building wires growth in FY26 is a direct read on this)
Renewable energy push — India targeting 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030. Renewable evacuation requires HV/MV transmission cabling + LV connection cables; MVCC penetration likely to grow with rural/sub-urban grid upgrade
EV infrastructure growth — India needs 2.05 million EV charging points by 2030 (current ~25K). Each requires LT power cabling + dedicated transformer cabling
Rural electrification drive — Villages electrified 300 (1950) → 600,000 (2022). Continued LT distribution build-out

Formalisation tailwind (sub-driver)

Organised share moving 61% → 80% over FY14-27E means ~19 ppts of unorganised market shifting to branded players
Drivers: GST rollout, regulatory tightening, safety awareness, IS-code enforcement
Beneficiaries: Polycab (national #1), KEI (national #2), and tier-2 branded players including V-Marc
V-Marc benefits but is NOT a primary capturer — Polycab/KEI/Havells/Finolex absorb the bulk

Comparison: V-Marc tailwind vs Yash tailwind

Dimension	Yash Highvoltage	V-Marc India
Tailwind type	Two-line (Indian T&D + global OIP→RIP shift)	Five-line (capex + RE + EV + housing + rural)
Industry size	Bushings global ~$1.5B (small absolute)	Cables India ₹1.2-1.3 trillion FY27E (large)
Industry CAGR	OIP→RIP 22%→43% in 6 yrs	12-14% CAGR FY23-27
Formalisation	n/a (already globally consolidated)	61% → 80% (significant shift remaining)
Geographic reach	60+ countries	Domestic + 3.5% exports (early stage)
Substitutability	Non-substitutable (every transformer needs a bushing)	BIS-spec substitutable at LV; differentiated at MVCC/HT
Tailwind quality	Tier-1 narrow but deep	Tier-1 broad but mid-depth

Net assessment

The sector is genuinely Tier-1. V-Marc's industry exposure is among the most attractive in Indian small-caps — broad-based, structurally growing, with a formalisation kicker that benefits branded players. The sector itself is not the problem.

BUT a strong sector does not redeem a disqualified promoter. The v2 framework's Principle 5 supersedes sector quality. Yash and V-Marc share the Tier-1 sector quality; they diverge entirely on Promoter axis. Sector quality is necessary but not sufficient for an INVEST verdict.